Use of a hydrodynamic model for the management of water renovation in a coastal system

In this contribution we investigate the hydrodynamic response in Alfacs Bay (Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean Sea) to different anthropogenic modifications in freshwater flows and inner bay–open sea connections. The fresh water coming from rice field irrigation contains nutrients and pesticides and therefore affects in multiple ways the productivity and water quality of the bay. The application of a nested oceanographic circulation modelling suite within the bay provides objective information to solve water quality problems that are becoming more acute due to temperature and phytoplankton concentration peaks during the summer period when seawater may exceed 28&thinsp;∘C, leading to high rates of mussel mortality and therefore a significant impact on the local economy. The effects of different management “solutions” (like a connection channel between the inner bay and open sea) are hydrodynamically modelled in order to diminish residence times (e-flushing time) and water temperatures. The modelling system, based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), consists of a set of nested domains using data from CMEMS-IBI for the initial and open boundary conditions (coarser domain). One full year (2014) of simulation is used to validate the results, showing low errors with sea surface temperature (SST) and good agreement with surface currents. Finally, a set of twin numerical experiments during the summer period (when the water temperature reaches 28&thinsp;∘C) is used to analyse the effects of proposed nature-based interventions. Although these actions modify water temperature in the water column, the decrease in SST is not enough to avoid high temperatures during some days and prevent eventual mussel mortality during summer in the shallowest regions. However, the proposed management actions reveal their effectiveness in diminishing water residence times along the entire bay, thus preventing the inner areas from having poor water renewal and the corresponding ecological problems.</p

Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale

Abstract. In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction) and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis). A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained. The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor (Fs) maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically based relationships, are analysed in detail. Although an improvement, in terms of spatial accuracy, is needed, thanks to the fast calculation and the satisfactory temporal prediction of landslides, the SLIP model applied on the study area shows certain potential as a landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale

Correction to: Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C

The original article has been corrected: Legends in Fig. 7 in the article and legends in Figs. 9 and 10 of Supplementary Material 1 as well as contents in columns H and J of Supplementary Material 2 have been amended to the valid results

Embracing Nature-based Solutions to promote resilient marine and coastal ecosystems

The world is struggling to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the human footprint on nature. We therefore urgently need to think about how to achieve more with actions to address mounting challenges for human health and wellbeing from biodiversity loss, climate change effects, and unsustainable economic and social development. Nature-based Solutions (NBS) have emerged as a systemic approach and an important component of the response to these challenges. In marine and coastal spaces, NBS can contribute to improved environmental health, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and a more sustainable blue economy, if implemented to a high standard. However, NBS have been largely studied for terrestrial – particularly urban – systems, with limited uptake thus far in marine and coastal areas, despite an abundance of opportunities. Here, we provide explanations for this lag and propose the following three research priorities to advance marine and coastal NBS: (1) Improve understanding of marine and coastal biodiversity-ecosystem services relationships to support NBS better designed for rebuilding system resilience and achieving desired ecological outcomes under climate change; (2) Provide scientific guidance on how and where to implement marine and coastal NBS and better coordinate strategies and projects to facilitate their design, effectiveness, and value through innovative synergistic actions; (3) Develop ways to enhance marine and coastal NBS communication, collaboration, ocean literacy and stewardship to raise awareness, co-create solutions with stakeholders, boost public and policy buy-in, and potentially drive a more sustained investment. Research effort in these three areas will help practitioners, policy-makers and society embrace NBS for managing marine and coastal ecosystems for tangible benefits to people and marine life.The study received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement MaCoBioS (contract no 869710), FutureMARES (contract no 869300) and REST-COAST (contract no 101037097).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Challenges for Sustained Observing and Forecasting Systems in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system

Challenges for Sustained Observing and Forecasting Systems in the Mediterranean Sea

The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system